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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 45r1 is as follows:

The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.

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There is an overall improvement in 2m temperature both in the HRES and ENS, particularly for Europe. 2m humidity is largely neutral for HRES, but positive for ENS, particularly in the tropics. 10 m wind speed is largely neutral in the HRES and slightly negative in the ENS. Precipitation in the HRES is improved in terms of categorical verification (e.g. SEEPS), and near-coastal precipitation in warm-rain dominated situations is significantly improved due to changes in the cloud physics. However, these changes also lead to more activity at higher precipitation rates in active regions such as the East Asian monsoon, and as a result error measures such as RMSE or CRPS (for the ENS) are increased. The negative signal for significant wave height against analysis is a result of changes to the analysis from a large increase in observation usage, and verification against observations (buoys) shows the results are neutral for both HRES and ENS.

Tropical cyclones

The implementation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the HRES removes the overall negative bias in tropical cyclone central pressure and thereby reduces the mean absolute intensity error. The position error is slightly (and with marginal statistical significance) increased at longer time ranges.,

Extended range

Changes in scores for the monthly system are generally positive across the range of parameters, with significance in week 1 for tropical winds. The only indication of a degradation is precipitation in the tropics with a consistent negative signal across all 4 weeks. There is an indication of a positive effect on skill across all parameters in the European domain. The MJO Index was significantly underspread, but changes in 45r1 to the SPPT scheme have brought the spread and error in close agreement throughout the 30 day forecast range. The underestimation of the MJO Index amplitude error has been significantly improved throughout the forecast.

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The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 45r1 will be changed as follows:

New model output parameters

Extended output have been added in cycle 45r1, including precipitation rates, CAPE indices and a total lighting flash density.

paramId	Shortname	name	Description	units	GRIB edition	Component	Test data available	Dissemination	ecCharts	Proposed for Catalogue
228050	litoti	Instantaneous total lightning density	Total lightning flash density (instantaneous)	flashes km-2 day-1	2 (TBC)	HRES / ENS			TBC
228051	litota	Averaged total lightning density since previous post-processing	Total lightning flash density (averaged between consecutive post-processing time steps)	flashes km-2 day-1	2 (TBC)	HRES / ENS			TBC
228057	litota3	Averaged total lightning flash density over the past 3 hours	Averaged total (cloud-to-ground + intra-cloud) lightning flash density over the past 3 hours.	flashes km-2 day-1	2	HRES / ENS			TBC
228058	litota6	Averaged total lightning flash density over the past 6 hours	Averaged total (cloud-to-ground + intra-cloud) lightning flash density over the past 6 hours	flashes km-2 day-1	2	HRES / ENS			TBC
260048	tprate	Total precipitation rate	Total precipitation rate (instantaneous)	kg m-2 s-1	2	HRES / ENS			TBC
228035	mxcape6	maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours	Maximum CAPE in last 6 hours	J kg-1	2	HRES (TBC) / ENS			TBC
228036	mxcapes6	maximum CAPES in the last 6 hours	Maximum CAPESHEAR in last 6 hours	m2 s-2	2	HRES (TBC) / ENS			TBC

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