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The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 2112.0304.2018.

For a record of changes made to this page please refer to  Document versions.

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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle IFS Cycle 45r1 is as follows:

The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.

Current Status

The Alpha testing of cycle 45r1 will continue and the cycle is being passed to the Forecast Department to start the Beta testingWe have now entered the Beta testing phase of IFS Cycle 45r1. We are running the new cycle in 'catch-up' mode and will shortly reach real-time. HRES and ENS test data are available in MARS.

Meteorological content of the new cycle

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The following evaluation of the new cycle is based on the alpha testing. Scorecards will be made available based on the beta testing phase of the new cycle are now available.

Upper-air

The new cycle leads to improvements in HRES upper-air fields. Verified against the model analysis, a positive signal is seen throughout the troposphere for most parameters, except temperature in the lower troposphere at shorter ranges. The latter is mainly a result of changes to the analysis, as confirmed by corresponding neutral results against observations. Upper-air improvements are more pronounced in the tropics, especially for wind and temperature. Verified against observations, upper-air changes are overall positive in the tropics except for relative humidity, and neutral to slightly positive in the extratropics. Upper-air results for the ENS verified against analysis are mostly positive in the tropics but more neutral in the extratropics. The negative signal for temperature in the lower troposphere at shorter lead times is again mainly due to changes in the analysis. Against observations, results are mostly negative in the extratropics at early lead times and significantly positive in the tropics, with the exception of relative humidity at 700hPa. The negative impact in the extratropics is partly due to a slight reduction in ensemble spread associated with the transition to a physically more realistic SPPT scheme. Whether or not this reduced spread is genuinely detrimental depends on whether observation errors are taken into account in the verification which has not been done routinely so far. Experimental verification against radiosonde data that takes observation error into account indicates that a large fraction of the negative ENS results disappear or become statistically non-significant.

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There is an overall improvement in 2m temperature both in the HRES and ENS, particularly for Europe. 2m humidity is largely neutral for HRES, but positive for ENS, particularly in the tropics. 10 m wind speed is largely neutral in the HRES and slightly negative in the ENS. Precipitation in the HRES is improved in terms of categorical verification (e.g. SEEPS), and near-coastal precipitation in warm-rain dominated situations is significantly improved due to changes in the cloud physics. However, these changes also lead to more activity at higher precipitation rates in active regions such as the East Asian monsoon, and as a result error measures such as RMSE or CRPS (for the ENS) are increased. The negative signal for significant wave height against analysis is a result of changes to the analysis from a large increase in observation usage, and verification against observations (buoys) shows the results are neutral for both HRES and ENS.

Tropical cyclones

The implementation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the HRES removes the overall negative bias in tropical cyclone central pressure and thereby reduces the mean absolute intensity error by about 10% in the short range, and about 20% from day 5 onwards. Evaluations so far show statistically neutral results for the position error.

Extended range

Changes in scores for the monthly system are generally positive across the range of parameters, with significance in week 1 for tropical winds. The only indication of a degradation is precipitation in the tropics with a consistent negative signal across all 4 weeks. There is an indication of a positive effect on skill across all parameters in the European domain. The MJO Index was significantly underspread, but changes in 45r1 to the SPPT scheme have brought the spread and error in close agreement throughout the 30 day forecast range. The underestimation of the MJO Index amplitude error has been significantly improved throughout the forecast.

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The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 45r1 will be changed as follows:

New model output parameters

Extended output have been added in cycle 45r1, including precipitation rates, CAPE indices and a total lighting lightning flash density.

paramId	Shortname	name	Description	units	GRIB edition	Component	Test data available	Dissemination	ecCharts	Proposed for Catalogue
228050	litoti	Instantaneous total lightning density	Total lightning flash density (instantaneous)	flashes km-2 day-1	2 (TBC)	HRES / ENS

		TBC
228051	litota	Averaged total lightning density since previous post-processing	Total lightning flash density (averaged between consecutive post-processing time steps)	flashes km-2 day-1	2 (TBC)	HRES / ENS

TBC

228057	litota3	Averaged total lightning flash density over the past 3 hours	Averaged total (cloud-to-ground + intra-cloud) lightning flash density over the past 3 hours.	flashes km-2 day-1	2 (TBC)	HRES / ENS

		TBC
228058	litota6	Averaged total lightning flash density over the past 6 hours	Averaged total (cloud-to-ground + intra-cloud) lightning flash density over the past 6 hours	flashes km-2 day-1	2 (TBC)	HRES / ENS

		TBC
260048	tprate	Total precipitation rate	Total precipitation rate (instantaneous)	kg m-2 s-1	2	HRES / ENS			TBC
228035	mxcape6	maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours	Maximum CAPE in last 6 hours	J kg-1	2	HRES

(TBC)

/ ENS

		TBC
228036	mxcapes6	maximum CAPES in the last 6 hours	Maximum

CAPESHEAR

CAPE-shear in last 6 hours

m2 s-2

2

HRES

(TBC)

/ ENS			TBC
162071	viwve	Vertical integral of eastward water vapour flux	Vertical integral of eastward water vapour flux	kg m-1 s-1	1	HRES / ENS			TBC
162072	viwvn	Vertical integral of northward water vapour flux	Vertical integral of northward water vapour flux	kg m-1 s-1	1	HRES / ENS			TBC

Software

The February 2018 Software release is suitable to handle the IFS cycle 45r1 data.

ecCodes

ecCodes version 2.7.0 provides  support for the existing new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 45r1. A new version of ecCodes, suitable for the new lightning parameters, will be made available shortly

GRIB API

GRIB API version 1.26.0 provides support for the existing new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 45r1. A new version of GRIB API, suitable for the new lightning parameters, will be made available shortly

EMOSLIB

The version of EMOSLIB used to interpolate IFS Cycle 43r3 data is suitable to handle 45r1 data.

Availability of test data from the IFS Cycle 45r1 test suites

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mars_data mars_data

Test data in MARS

Test data from the IFS Cycle 45r1 test suites are available in MARS. The data are available with experiment version 0072 (MARS keyword EXPVER=0072) starting from 06 UTC on 18 March 2018.

The data can be accessed in MARS from:

• HRES (class=od, stream=oper, expver=72)
• Wave HRES (class=od, stream=wave, expver=72)
• ENS (class=od, stream=enfo, expver=72)
• ENS Wave (class=od, stream=waef, expver=72)

Only registered users of ECMWF computing systems will be able to access the test data sets in MARS.

The data should not be used for operational forecasting.  Please report any problems you find with this data to User Support.

Test data in dissemination

IFS Cycle 45r1 test data will become available through the test dissemination system when we will have reached the release candidate stage.

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