Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti, Tim
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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The plot below shows the warnings on Meteoalarm from 5 October, with a red warning for wind gusts over northern Germany.
2.2 Mesoscale
Satellite and radar sequences around the time that the maximum gusts hit Berlin both suggest, via filamentation in the cloud head region, that the gusts could well have been due to the "Sting Jet" phenomena. The fact that the gusts inland were so high is also believed to be a characteristic of sting jets, because of the top-down destabilisation mechanism that is believed to be involved (as on the "3D visualisation" poster below).
Maximum instantaneous gusts in short range HRES run, at T+13=VT 13Z on 5 October 2017, right panel has HRES Tephigram locations added
HRES soundings at T+13=13Z within the strong wind area
The following poster (presented at the EGU conference in April 2018) discusses this case in the context of using 3-D visualisation to trace out, in 3-dimensions, the jet cores.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts from HRES for 5 October and MSLP valid 5 October 12z. The first plot shows 24-hour maximum wind gusts from observations.
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