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#newfcsystem

Description of upgrade

IFS Cycle 45r1 is an upgrade with many scientific contributions, including changes in data assimilation (both in the EDA and the 4DVAR), in the use of observations, and in modelling. The new cycle only includes meteorological changes; there are no technical changes, e.g. new resolutions.

The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 1209.0405.2018.

For a record of changes made to this page please refer to  Document versions.

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The planned timetable for the implementation of the IFS Cycle 45r1 is as follows:

The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.

Current Status

We have now entered the Beta release candidate testing phase of IFS Cycle 45r1. We are running the new cycle in 'catch-up' mode and will shortly reach real-time. HRES and ENS test data are available in MARSdissemination.

Meteorological content of the new cycle

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Changes in scores for the monthly system are generally positive across the range of parameters, with significance in week 1 for tropical winds. The only indication of a degradation is precipitation in the tropics with a consistent negative signal across all 4 weeks. There is an indication of a positive effect on skill across all parameters in the European domain. The MJO Index was significantly underspread, but changes in 45r1 to the SPPT scheme have brought the spread and error in close agreement throughout the 30 day forecast range. The underestimation of the MJO Index amplitude error has been significantly improved throughout the forecast.

Re-forecasts

The re-forecasts for the cycle 45r1 are computed from 3 May 2018. Therefore, the model climate used for the Extreme Forecast Index and other products is using a mixture of cycle 43r3 and cycle 45r1 re-forecast data. We will have a model climate fully based on cycle 45r1 date by 22 May 2018, in time before the implementation date of the new cycle. Users planning to build a model climate using the cycle 45r1 test re-forecasts will also need to include cycle 43r3 re-forecast data during the following two weeks.

Technical details of the new cycle

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The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 45r1 will be changed as follows:

New model output parameters

Extended output have been added in cycle 45r1, including precipitation rates, CAPE indices and a total lightning flash density.

paramId	Shortname	name	Description	units	GRIB edition	Component	Test data available	Dissemination	ecCharts	Proposed for Catalogue
228050	litoti	Instantaneous total lightning flash density

Total

Instantaneous value of total (cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flash density

(instantaneous)

flashes km-2 day-1

2

(TBC)

HRES / ENS

		TBC
228051

litota

litota1

Averaged total lightning

density since previous post-processingTotal lightning flash density (averaged between consecutive post-processing time steps)

flash density in the last hour

Averaged total (cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flash density in the last hour

flashes km-2 day-1

2

(TBC)

HRES / ENS

		TBC
228057	litota3	Averaged total lightning flash density

over

in the

past

last 3 hours

Averaged total (cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground

+ intra-cloud

) lightning flash density

over

in the

past

last 3 hours

.

flashes km-2 day-1

2

(TBC)

HRES / ENS

		TBC
228058	litota6	Averaged total lightning flash density

over

in the

past

last 6 hours

Averaged total (cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground

+ intra-cloud

) lightning flash density

over

in the

past

last 6 hours

flashes km-2 day-1

2

(TBC)

HRES / ENS

		TBC
260048	tprate	Total precipitation rate	Total precipitation rate (instantaneous)	kg m-2 s-1	2	HRES / ENS			TBC
228035	mxcape6	maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours	Maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours	J kg-1	2	HRES / ENS

		TBC
228036	mxcapes6	maximum CAPES in the last 6 hours	Maximum CAPE-shear in the last 6 hours	m2 s-2	2	HRES / ENS

		TBC
162071	viwve	Vertical integral of eastward water vapour flux	Vertical integral of eastward water vapour flux	kg m-1 s-1	1	HRES / ENS			TBC
162072	viwvn	Vertical integral of northward water vapour flux	Vertical integral of northward water vapour flux	kg m-1 s-1	1	HRES / ENS			TBC
151131	ocu	Ocean current zonal component	Ocean current zonal component	m s-1	1	HRES / ENS			TBC

Software

151132	ocv	Ocean current meridional component	Ocean current meridional component	m s-1	1	HRES / ENS			TBC

Software

We recommend the use of the following versions of ECMWF's software packages to manipulate the The February 2018 Software release is suitable to handle the IFS cycle 45r1 data.

ecCodes

ecCodes version 2.7.0 provides  3 provides full support for the existing new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 45r1. A new version of ecCodes, suitable for the new lightning parameters, will be made available shortly

GRIB API

GRIB API version 1.26.0 provides full support for the existing new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 45r1. A new version of GRIB API, suitable for the new lightning parameters, will be made available shortly

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The version of EMOSLIB used to interpolate IFS Cycle 43r3 data is suitable to handle 45r1 data.

Magics/Metview

Magics version 3.0.3 and  Metview version 5.0.2 provide full support for the new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 45r1.

Availability of test data from the IFS Cycle 45r1 test suites

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The data should not be used for operational forecasting.  Please report any problems you find with this data to User Support.

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ecpds_data ecpds_data

Test data in dissemination

IFS Cycle 45r1 test data will become from the release candidate testing stage are available through the test dissemination system. Users of ECMWF dissemination system when we will have reached the release candidate stageproducts can trigger transmission of test products by logging in to the test ECPDS system at https://ecpds-xmonitor.ecmwf.int/  (or https://msaccess.ecmwf.int:7443) in the usual manner. In order to receive the test products, users have to have their firewall open to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:

• Internet transfers: 193.61.196.104 ( ecpds-xma.ecmwf.int ), 193.61.196.105 ( ecpds-xmb.ecmwf.int ) and 193.61.196.113 ( ecpds-xmc.ecmwf.int )
  

• RMDCN transfers: 136.156.8.132 ( mspds-dm4.ecmwf.int ) and 136.156.8.133 ( mspds-dm5.ecmwf.int )

The IFS Cycle 45r1 test products are available as version number 72 (file names ending with '72'). The test products are generated daily, shortly behind real-time from both the 00UTC and 12UTC runs and based on the operational dissemination requirements and the IFS Cycle 45r1 test data for HRES, HRES-WAM, HRES-SAW., ENS, ENS-WAM and ENS extended..

Should you require any assistance with IFS Cycle 45r1 test dissemination products, please contact Data Services.

Graphical display of IFS cycle 45r1 test data using ecCharts

IFS cycle 45r1 test data will shortly become available in ecCharts.

Web charts based on IFS cycle 45r1 test data

Web charts, including ENS meteograms, based on IFS cycle 45r1 test data will shortly become available.

Time-critical applications

Option 1 - simple time-critical jobs

Member State users of the  "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 45r1 test data by using the limited ECaccess 'events' set up for this purpose:

For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0072 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 45r1 test data in any MARS retrievals.

These events are  intended for testing technical aspects only and should not be used for operational forecasting.

Options 2 and 3

Option 2 or 3 time-critical applications can be tested with theIFS Cycle 45r1 test data retrieved from MARS or received in Dissemination.

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