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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The EFI for CAPE-shear is the operational ensemble product that is designed to be used for forecasting such well-organised convection. The forecast gave an early indication of convective instability as early as 10 May 12 UTC run. The signal increased and was pretty high in the last 6 consecutive forecasts. In the last two short-range forecasts the maximum values of the EFI are located where the storm originated over NW Bulgaria.
A sequence of consecutive CAPE-shear EFI forecasts starting from the latest one. The blue triangles denotes Pleven, one of the worst affected places in this storm.
ECMWF is just about to offer a number of new products to facilitate forecasting deep moist convection.
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