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CAPE plot showing CAPE distributed into 3 categories + CAPE=0 (shown in the title) for T+108h (left) and T+12h (right).
With the IFS cycle 45r1 lightning density is added as a new model parameter. HRES forecast in the medium range (T+114h) does not have much lightning over the affected area because of the very strong capping (large CIN values) while the short-range forecast (T+18h) have the signal in the right place over NW Bulgaria but overpredicted lightning intensity over southern Romania. In this case, one can see the value of having ensemble system. Probabilistic forecast in the medium range (T+114h) provided very good guidance on the area under greatest threat of intense lightning activity.
Lightning density in flashes.100km-2.h-1 between 12Z and 18Z on 15 May 2018 from HRES T+114 (left) and T+18h (right).
ENS T+114h Probability of lightning density above 0.1 flashes.100km-2.h-1 (left) and above 2 flashes.100km-2.h-1 (right).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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