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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
With IFS 45r1 two new convective parameters have been introduced:
- maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours
- maximum CAPE-shear in the last 6 hours.
These new parameters will be tested in the EFI. An example that compares these new model outputs to the instantaneous CAPE and CAPE-shear for this case of severe convection are shown below.
Maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours at T+18h compared to CAPE at T+12h, T+15h and T+18h (left).
The same but for CAPE-shear.
3.3 ENS
The EFI for CAPE-shear is the operational ensemble product that is designed to be used for forecasting such well-organised convection. The forecast gave an early indication of convective instability as early as 10 May 12 UTC run. The signal increased and was pretty high in the last 6 consecutive forecasts. In the last two short-range forecasts the maximum values of the EFI are located where the storm originated over NW Bulgaria.
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