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The plot below shows the evolution of ensemble (blue) and HRES (red dot) forecasts for 3-day (26-28 June) precipitation over Greece (37N-42N, 20E-24E). I strong signal appeared in the ensemble from 19 June onwards for a very wet period.
Torrential rain was accompanied by enhanced lightning activity as well. European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) provides some extra reports of excessive rain, large hail and even tornados/waterspouts. It's interesting to note that probability of lightning was pretty accurate while convective EFIs failed to provide a signal for the most affected areas in Greece. It gave good guidance over NW Turkey though. One of the reasons for the EFI to fail provide a signal might be the fact that we use already diagnosed CAPE and CAPE-shear as a model output while lightning density is computed directly within the convection scheme. As a result, it can happen that in case of very active long-lasting convection, CAPE could be released constantly without peaking at any extreme values, especially at discrete time steps where the CAPE is provided as a model output (which is every hour), so that it could be shown on the EFI.
ATDnet lightning density, ESWD reports and maximum CAPE and CAPE-shear EFI (left) and probability of flash density > 1 flash per 100m2 per day.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show precipitation anomalies for 25 June to 1 July from forecasts with different initial times.
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