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The plot below show observed 24-hour wind gusts (first plot) valid for 9 August 12UTC to 10 August 12UTC and HRES forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts (shade) and MSLP valid 10 August 00UTC (contour).
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 10 August.
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The plots below show cyclone feature maps for 1 km maximum wind within 300 km radius, valid for 10 August 12UTC.
The plot below shows the ensemble evolution for 4-hour maximum wind gusts valid 10 August for a point on the sea between Denmark and Norway. Ensemble distribution (blue), HRES (red dot) and model climate distribution (red).
Regarding the false alarm for Holland, the plot below show the ensemble evolution (blue) and HRES (red dot) for 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 12UTC 9 August to 12UTC 10 August, for a point on the Dutch coast near Leeuwarden. It is abvious that the most extreme forecast was 8 August 12UTC but also the jump to the last forecast is clear. The observed gusts were in the range 20-25 m/s.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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