Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, David L., Esti, Hao, Kristian, Mohamed
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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The plot below shows the evolution of central pressure in Best Track (dots) and LWDA analysis (solid line). The analysis had difficulties to capture the intense phase on 5 September, but captured the second intensification.
During the lifetime of Florence an increased number of observations of ocean floats was noted (see first plot). These additional floats were ALAMO (Air-Launched Autonomous Micro Observer) float, 10 floats deployed by WHOI in order to monitor Hurricane Florence, in the predicted path of Hurricane. These floats descend to 300m every 2 hours. The behaviour of the data assimilation was checked and most response in our ocean system is already visible in the model background, which did a very good job in representing the cooling/deepening effect during Florence event. And DA only slightly corrected the temperature fields.
3.2 HRES
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 14 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 13 September (first plot) to 4 September (last plot). Early forecasts had problems to capture the northward "kink" on 7 September. The forecast from 4 September also had a majority of members turning northward over the Atlantic. This changed on the 5 September, and the sensitivity analysis further down is targeting this change.
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The predicted hydrological impacts of Hurricane Florence and is shown in the GLOFAS forecasts below from 14 September. The rainfall is plotted over the top of the map and the hydrographs highlight the time when the highest river flow is expected.
From the Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network (FIMAN) website (https://fiman.nc.gov/fiman/) from the North Caroline government, you can see the current state of the rivers in real time and compare them with past forecast. As seen above, there was several warnings in the area with possible flooding and they are reflected in the images below. Some of the gages had at this point already reached the maximum level for the vent. Another interesting point from this is that , at least from the predictions of their hydrological model, it seems that at least 3 separate rivers in 3 different states will all be near or the record flood levels (see the three river flow plots).
Map of flood warnings and current state of the gauges from the Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network (FIMAN) valid for today at 14:00 UTC.
Forecast and observations of the flux from three different river gauges in Manchester, Cheraw and Danville (USA)
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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