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During the lifetime of Florence an increased number of observations of ocean floats was noted (see first plot). These additional floats were ALAMO (Air-Launched Autonomous Micro Observer) float, 10 floats deployed by WHOI in order to monitor Hurricane Florence, in the predicted path of Hurricane. These floats descend to 300m every 2 hours. The behaviour of the data assimilation was checked and most response in our ocean system is already visible in the model background, which did a very good job in representing the cooling/deepening effect during Florence event. And DA only slightly corrected the temperature fields.
3.2 HRES
Total precipitation accumulated from HRES during the whole episode of Hurricane Florence. Base time 14/09/2018 at 00 UTC.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 14 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 13 September (first plot) to 4 September (last plot). Early forecasts had problems to capture the northward "kink" on 7 September. The forecast from 4 September also had a majority of members turning northward over the Atlantic. This changed on the 5 September, and the sensitivity analysis further down is targeting this change.
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
Total precipitation observed in 7 days from the hurricane Florence.
Plot of the maximum rainfall caused by North Atlantic and Northeast tropical cyclones and their remnants per state (1950-2018).