Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti
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Discussed in the following Daily reports: 2018-10-10 |
Picture
1. Impact
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978
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The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of 6-hour total precipitation covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plot below shows HRES 12 h total precipitation. Base time 9th October 2018 at 00 UTC and valid on 10th October 2018 at 00 UTC. CDF 24h precipitation in a point close to the station where the maximum precipitation was registered.
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
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The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation (9 October).
The panel plot below show Lightning density, EFI CAPE and EFI CAPE-SHEAR for day 2 and severe weather report valid for 9th October 2018. .
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
Comparison of a the raw ensemble CDF in the maximum precipitation point with the point rainfall in the same point for 12h precipitation forecast. Base time 9th October 2018 and valid at lead time 24 h.
6. Additional material
Observations total precipitation in 24 h and radar image:
