Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando, Tim
| Show If | ||
|---|---|---|
| ||
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
...
Left: Airmass RGB composite valid at 21:45 (red arrow show Figueira da Foz). Right: Maximum reflectivity radar (dBZ) valid five min later; arrows represent the sting jet (red) and Figueira da Foz (black)
The maximum gust at Coimbra (=66kts) between 2030 and 2130Z seems to tally with the cause being a sting jet. It coincides on IR imagery with the dark/dry zone that developed hours before (or possibly a mini gust front cloud band that appears within it, similar to the ones Identified by Keith Browning in the October 1987 UK storm). Meanwhile conceptual model considerations, plus radar and satellite imagery above, would ascribe the maximum gust at Figuera da Foz to the boundary region between a sting jet and a cold jet. At inland locations (eg Coimbra) SJ tends to be much stronger than CJ, whilst by coasts (eg Figuera da Foz) they can have similar strengths, due to a different destabilisation mechanism (as described in Hewson and Neu, Tellus, 2015).
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
...