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The plot below shows the forecast evolution of 24-hour precipitation (29 October 06UTC to 30 October 06UTC) for a 2x2 degree box centred on Ponte Nelle Alpi (46.2N,12.3E). The blue box and whisker shows the ensemble, red dot HRES and red box-and whisker moedl climate. The right plot shows the daily precipitation (thin lines) and accumulated precipitation since 1 October (00-00UTC) for observation stations inside the box (black line), 24-hour HRES forecasts (blue) and ensemble mean from +144h and +240h (pink and green). This plot shows that the short-range HRES (, which is correspond to the second last red dot in the left panel) . Note that the forecast values in the two panels are not identical as the right panel is for forecasts at observation stations and slightly different accumulation periods. Anyway the right panel indicates that the short-range forecast had a good magnitude of the rainfall 29-30 October.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Extreme rainfall captured from 7 days before (22 October) and with high confidence from 24 October