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On 15 March the tropical cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique causing many fatalities. The cyclone formed from a tropical depression that already had brought fatal floodings to Mozambique and Malawi the week before. During the second landfall a storm surge hit the area of Beira together with extreme wind and extensive rainfall leading to further flooding inland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-47624156
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Idai
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts in HRES forecasts valid 14 March 12UTC to 15 March 12UTC. The forecast were very consistent from 10 March 00UTC and onwards.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 14 March 12UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 14 March (first plot) to 7 March (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical cyclone on 10 March. Before that, the ensemble predicted the re-emerging over the Indian ocean but had large uncertainties regarding the westward turn.
The plots below show EFI and SOT for rainfall on 15 March.Already the forecast from 9 March indicated the risk of extreme precipitation in southern Mozambique.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 Glofas
The plots below show the flood risk from globalfloods.eu for a point near Beira, starting with the latest forecast (from 19 March). After the rainfall on 15 March the ensemble converged as the water was already "on ground", but the risk for extreme flooding was indicated already in the earliest forecast displayed here from 10 March.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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