#IFS46r1 #newfcsystem
Description of upgrade
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The page will be updated as required. It was last changed on 15.05.04.20182019
For a record of changes made to this page please refer to Document versions.
Further information and advice regarding the upgrade can be obtained from User Support.
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News
- We have now reached the release candidate phase of the implementation of the new IFS Cycle 46r1.
- IFS cycle 46r1 test data is available in dissemination.
- The expected date for the operational implementation of IFS cycle 46r1 is . We will confirm this date early in May.
- The second set of live-streamed seminars for cycle 46r1 will take place on at 09:30 BST and on at 17:00 BST.
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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 46r1 is as follows:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| January 2019 | Initial announcement |
| 26 February and 07 March 2019 | Live-streamed seminar 1 |
| 15 May 2019 | Availability of test data in dissemination |
| 15 May and 16 May 2019 | Live-streamed seminar 2 |
| 11 June 2019 | Expected date of implementation |
The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.
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- Improvements in convection scheme (entrainment, CAPE closure, shallow convection).
- Activate LW scattering in radiation scheme.
- 3D aerosol climatology replaces 2D climatology.
- Correct scaling of dry mass flux in diffusion scheme.
- Improvement of the TL/AD of the semi-Lagrangian departure point scheme in the polar cap area.
- Fix instability in 2m temperature diagnostic related to wet tile.
- Bug fix in the computation of rain amount that could freeze when intercepted by the snow-pack.
- New parametrisations for wind input and deep water dissipation for for the wave model.
- Limit on wave spectrum for very shallow water and minimum depth set to 3m.
- ENS makes use of 50 EDA-members and initial perturbations are made exchangeable.
- ENS radiation time-step is reduced from 3 hours to 1 hour, to be consistent with HRES.
For further details, read Main Contributions in modelling
Re-forecasts
The new IFS cycle 46r1 will use the ERA5 data to initialize the re-forecasts and also use ERA5 EDA to perturb the re-forecasts initial conditions.
Technical details of the new cycle
Changes to GRIB encoding
Model identifiers
The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 46r1 will be changed as follows:
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Meteorological impact of the new cycle
The following evaluation of the new cycle is based on the alpha testing.
Weather parameters and waves
The IFS Cycle 46r1 brings substantial improvements in forecast skill both for the ENS and the HRES. Medium-range forecast errors in the extra-tropics are reduced by 1-5% for upper-air and by 0.5-2% for surface parameters. Improvements of this magnitude are seen both against analysis and against observations. In terms of lead time, upper-air improvements amount to a gain of the order of 2-3 hours. In the tropics, HRES results are predominantly positive, but there are some increases in temperature and humidity errors, mainly seen in verification against analysis. For temperature, they are due to changes in the analysis and the introduction of a 3D aerosol climatology. ENS results in the tropics are also mixed, in addition to the already mentioned changes they are affected by a minor reduction in spread on the order of 1% due to changes in the deep convection scheme. Wave parameters (significant wave height and mean wave period) in the HRES are improved by 5-10% due to a major upgrade in the ocean wave model. Increased wave activity leads to some degradation in wave height at longer lead times in the ENS.
Precipitation forecast skill increases in the extra-tropics by about 0.5% in the ENS and 1% in the HRES. Other weather parameters, such as 2m temperature and 2m dewpoint, 10m wind speed, and total cloud cover improve by about 1% in the ENS, and by 0.5-1% in the HRES when verified against observations. In the tropics, slightly reduced spread and increased bias lead to a very small (0.1-0.2%) degradation in ENS precipitation. Scores in the tropics show strong improvements for 2m temperature (4-8% against analyses both in ENS and HRES), (1-2% against obs in ENS).
Tropical cyclones
Results for TCs are generally neutral. There is a slight improvement in the tracks consistent with improvements in tropical winds, but this signal has only marginal statistical significance.
Extended range
The extended-range impact of model changes associated with 46r1 is neutral, except for a small degradation of 2-metre temperature and precipitation skill scores in the tropics. However, the use of ERA5 instead of ERA-Interim as initial condition gives significant improvements in weeks 1-2 in the extratropics, and up to week 4 in the tropics.
Re-forecasts
The new IFS cycle 46r1 will use the ERA5 data to initialize the re-forecasts and also use ERA5 EDA to perturb the re-forecasts initial conditions.
Technical details of the new cycle
Changes to GRIB encoding
Model identifiers
The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 46r1 will be changed as follows:
| GRIB 1 Section 1 Octets | GRIB 2 Section 4 Octets | eccodes key | Component | Model ID | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | ||||
| 6 | 14 | generatingProcessIdentifier | Atmospheric model | 149 | 150 |
| Ocean wave model | 114 | 115 | |||
| HRES-SAW ( HRES stand alone ocean wave model) | 214 | 215 | |||
Sea Surface Temperature
| Warning |
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With the new IFS cycle 46r1, the ecCodes key "localDefinitionNumber" for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses at 00Z and 12Z will be changed from 17 to 1, both in dissemination and in MARS. With this change, all SST and Sea Ice fields for the analyses and Forecasts will be harmonised. |
New model output parameters
Extended output have been added in cycle 46r1, including a subset of ocean fields on the atmospheric grid.
| paramId | shortName | name | Description | units | GRIB edition | Components | Test data available | Dissemination | ecCharts | Added to the Catalogue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Near-surface wind output | ||||||||||
| 228239 | 200u | 200 metre U wind component | eastward component of the 200m wind. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS |  | TBC | TBC | |
| 228240 | 200v | 200 metre V wind component | northward component of the 200m wind. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS | | TBC | TBC | |
| Wave model parameters | ||||||||||
| 140098 | weta | Wave induced mean sea level correction | Wave induced mean sea level correction | m | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | |
| 140099 | wraf | Ratio of wave angular and frequency width | Ratio of wave angular and frequency width | dimensionless | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 140100 | wnslc | Number of events in freak waves statistics | Number of events in freak waves statistics | dimensionless | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | |
| 140101 | utaua | U-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | U-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | |
| 140102 | vtaua | V-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | V-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | |
| 140103 | utauo | U-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | U-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | |
| 140104 | vtauo | V-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | V-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | |
| 140105 | wphio | Wave turbulent energy flux into ocean | Wave turbulent energy flux into ocean | W m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | | TBC | TBC | TBC |
| Ocean parameters available at the surface, produced by the NEMO model. | ||||||||||
| 174098 | sithick | Sea-ice thickness * | Sea-ice thickness | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | | TBC | TBC | |
| 151148 | mld | Mixed layer depth * | Mixed layer depth | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | | |||
| 151145 | zos | Sea surface height * | Sea surface height | m | ||||||
New model output parameters
Extended output have been added in cycle 46r1, including a subset of ocean fields on the atmospheric grid.
Near-surface wind output
| 1 | HRES / ENS | |
| 151163 |
| t20d | Depth of 20C isotherm * | Depth of 20C isotherm | m |
| 1 | HRES / ENS | |
| 151130 |
Wave induced mean sea level correction
| so | Sea water practical salinity * | Sea water practical salinity | psu | 1 | HRES / ENS |
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| 151164 |
| tav300 | Average potential temperature in the upper 300m * | Average potential temperature in the upper 300m | degrees C | 1 | HRES / ENS |
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| 151175 |
| sav300 | Average salinity in the upper 300m * | Average salinity in the upper 300m | psu |
| 1 | HRES |
| / ENS | | |||||||||
| * All fields are masked on land and lake points. tav300 and sav300 are masked on ocean points with depth < 300m. | ||||||||||
| Parameters on Potential Vorticity levels (1.5 and 2 PVU) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | z | Geopotential | This parameter is the gravitational potential energy of a unit mass, at a particular location, relative to mean sea level. | m2 s | ||||||
| -2 | 1 |
HRES |
/ ENS |
* | | TBC | TBC | |
| 203 |
| o3 | Ozone mass mixing ratio | This parameter is the mass of ozone per kilogram of air. | kg kg-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * |
| TBC | TBC |
| 3 |
| pt | Potential Temperature | Potential Temperature | K | 1 | HRES / ENS * |
| TBC | TBC |
| 54 | pres | Pressure | Pressure | Pa | 1 | HRES / ENS * |
| TBC | TBC |
| 133 |
| q | Specific humidity | This parameter is the mass of water vapour per kilogram of moist air. | kg kg-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * |
| TBC | TBC |
Sea-ice thickness
| 131 | u | U component of wind | This parameter is the eastward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the east, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the west. | m s-1 |
| 1 | HRES / ENS * | | TBC | TBC | ||
| 132 |
| v | V component of wind | This parameter is the northward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the north, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the south. | m s-1 |
| 1 | HRES / ENS * | | TBC | TBC |
* The perturbed forecasts for the ENS only contain the parameters pt, u and v. | ||||||||||
| Ensemble probabilities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 131098 | tpg25 | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | dimensionless | 2 | |||||
ENS | | TBC | TBC |
| 131099 |
| tpg50 | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | dimensionless | 2 |
ENS | | TBC | TBC |
| 131085 |
| tpg100 | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | dimensionless | 2 |
ENS | | TBC | TBC |
| 131100 |
| 10fgg10 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | dimensionless | 2 |
ENS | | TBC | TBC |
This parameter is the gravitational potential energy of a unit mass, at a particular location, relative to mean sea level.
| 133093 | ptsa_gt_1stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | | |||
| 133094 | ptsa_gt_1p5stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS |
|
This parameter is the mass of ozone per kilogram of air.
| 133095 | ptsa_gt_2stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS |
|
Potential Temperature
| 133096 | ptsa_lt_1stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -1 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS |
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Pressure
| 133097 | ptsa_lt_1p5stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS |
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This parameter is the mass of water vapour per kilogram of moist air.
| 133098 | ptsa_lt_2stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -2 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS |
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| Ensemble mean / Ensemble standard deviation | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ws * | The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second. | ||||||||
The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second. | m s-1 | 1 |
ENS |
| TBC | TBC |
| 130 | t * |
This parameter is the |
temperature in the atmosphere. | This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere. | K | 1 | ENS |
| TBC | TBC | ||||||||
| * | ||||||||||
| These parameters have been added at 250 hPa. | ||||||||||
| Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) & Shift Of Tails (SOT) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132045 | wvfi | Water vapour flux index | EFI and SOT for water vapour flux | dimensionless | 1 | |||||
Total precipitation of at least 25 mm
Total precipitation of at least 25 mm
ENS | | TBC | TBC |
| 132167 |
Total precipitation of at least 50 mm
Total precipitation of at least 50 mm
| 2ti | 2 metre temperature index | EFI and SOT for weekly mean temperature (out to week 6) | dimensionless | 1 | ENS-EXTENDED |
| TBC | TBC | TBC |
| 132228 |
| tpi | Total precipitation |
| index | EFI and SOT for 1 week total precipitation (out to week 6) |
| dimensionless |
| 1 | ENS-EXTENDED | | TBC | TBC | TBC |
10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s
10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s
ENS
The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second.
The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second.
ENS
This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere.
This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere.
ENS
Water vapour flux index
EFI and SOT for water vapour flux
ENS
Software
ecCodes
ecCodes version 2.12.0 provides full support for the new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 46r1.
Availability of test data from the IFS cycle 46R1 test suites
Test data in MARS
Test data from the IFS Cycle 46r1 test suites are available in MARS. The data are available with experiment version 0073 (MARS keyword EXPVER=0073) starting from 00 UTC on 29 January 2019.
The data can be accessed in MARS from:
- HRES (class=od, stream=oper, expver=73)
- Wave HRES (class=od, stream=wave, expver=73)
- ENS (class=od, stream=enfo, expver=73)
- ENS Wave (class=od, stream=waef, expver=73)
Only registered users of ECMWF computing systems will be able to access the test data sets in MARS.
| Warning |
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We recommend users to use the MARS keyword "PARAMETER=paramId", as the shorName or full name may be ambiguous. E.g. for the new Wave model output, use "PARAMETER=140098" and not "PARAMETER=weta" or "PARAMETER=Wave induced mean sea level correction". |
Software
ecCodes
ecCodes version 2.12.5 provides full support for the new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 46r1.
Availability of test data from the IFS cycle 46R1 test suites
Test data in MARS
Test data from the IFS Cycle 46r1 test suites are available in MARS. The data are available with experiment version 0073 (MARS keyword EXPVER=0073) starting from 00 UTC on 29 January 2019.
The data can be accessed in MARS from:
- HRES (class=od, stream=oper, expver=73)
- Wave HRES (class=od, stream=wave, expver=73)
- ENS (class=od, stream=enfo, expver=73)
- ENS Wave (class=od, stream=waef, expver=73)
Only registered users of ECMWF computing systems will be able to access the test data sets in MARS.
| Warning |
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We recommend users to use the MARS keyword "PARAMETER=paramId", as the shorName or full name may be ambiguous. E.g. for the new Wave model output, use "PARAMETER=140098" and not "PARAMETER=weta" or "PARAMETER=Wave induced mean sea level correction". |
The data should not be used for operational forecasting. Please report any problems you find with this data to Service Desk.
Test data in dissemination
IFS Cycle 46r1 test data from the release candidate testing stage are available through the test dissemination system, starting from the 12Z run on . Users of ECMWF dissemination products can trigger transmission of test products by logging in to the test ECPDS system at https://ecpds-xmonitor.ecmwf.int/ (or https://msaccess.ecmwf.int:7443) in the usual manner. In order to receive the test products, users have to have their firewall open to the relevant ECPDS Data Movers:
Internet transfers: 193.61.196.104 ( ecpds-xma.ecmwf.int ), 193.61.196.105 ( ecpds-xmb.ecmwf.int ) and 193.61.196.113 ( ecpds-xmc.ecmwf.int )
RMDCN transfers: 136.156.8.132 ( mspds-dm4.ecmwf.int ) and 136.156.8.133 ( mspds-dm5.ecmwf.int )
The IFS Cycle 46r1 test products are available as version number 73 (file names ending with '73'). The test products are generated shortly behind real-time and based on the operational dissemination requirements and the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data for HRES, HRES-WAM, HRES-SAW., ENS, ENS-WAM and ENS extended.
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The Cycle 46r1 new parameters listed above will become available in dissemination after the implementation of the cycle. |
Should you require any assistance with IFS Cycle 46r1 test dissemination products, please contact Data Services.
Graphical display of IFS cycle 46r1 test data
IFS cycle 46r1 test data will shortly become available.
Time-critical applications
Option 1 - simple time-critical jobs
Member State users of the "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data by using the limited ECaccess 'events' set up for this purpose:
| 1633 | e_ms090 | At this stage, the e-suite step 090 (HRES-BC) has been generated. |
| 1634 | e_ms144 | At this stage, the e-suite step 144 (ENS-BC) has been generated. |
| 1635 | e_ms240 | At this stage, the e-suite step 240 (HRES) has been generated. |
| 1636 | e_ms360 | At this stage, the e-suite step 360 (ENS) has been generated. |
| 1637 | e_mslaw | At this stage, the e-suite step law (HRES-SAW) has been generated. |
| 1638 | e_ms1104 | At this stage, the e-suite step 1104 (ENS extended) has been generated. |
| 1639 | e_msrefc | At this stage, the e-suite step refc (REFORECAST) has been updated. |
For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0073 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data in any MARS retrievals.
These events are The data are intended for testing technical aspects only and should not be used for operational forecasting. Please report any problems you find with this data to Service Desk.
Test data in dissemination
Time Critical activities.
Options 2 and 3
Option 2 or 3 time-critical applications can be tested with theIFS Cycle 45r1 test data retrieved from MARS or received in DisseminationIFS Cycle 46r1 test data will become available through the test dissemination system when we will have reached the release candidate stage.
Further reading
Peter Lean, Massimo Bonavita, Elías Hólm, Niels Bormann,Tony McNally: "Continuous data assimilation for the IFS" - ECMWF Newsletter 158. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/continuous-data-assimilation-ifs
Simon Lang, Elías Hólm, Massimo Bonavita, Yannick Trémolet (JCSDA, US): "A 50-member Ensemble of Data Assimilations" - ECMWF Newsletter 158. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/50-member-ensemble-data-assimilations
- ECMWF 's website news item: "Upgrade to boost quality of ocean wave forecasts". Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/upgrade-boost-quality-ocean-wave-forecasts
- Frédéric Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, Simon Lang, Ivan Tsonevsky, David Richardson, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda: "Use of ERA5 to Initialize Ensemble Re-forecasts" - ECMWF Technical Memorandum nr. 841. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/18872-use-era5-initialize-ensemble-re-forecasts
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