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The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with maximum 24-hour precipitation valid 20 August for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). There was an elevated risk for rainfall in the forecasts, but nothing extreme on the grid-box scale.
The plot below shows the same as above by for a lightning index averaged on 20 August. Also in this diagnostic an elevated risk was present from about a week before the event.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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