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The ensemble ensemble evolution plot below shows the ENS (blue) and HRES (red dot) 3-day average temperature for a box covering most of France (44N-50N,2E-8E) 26-28 July. The signal of the heat appeared quickly between the forecast from 18 June 00UTC to 19 June 00UTC (7 before the start of the verification period). Earlier forecasts had a ensemble median cooler than normal (see Section 3.4).
The plots below show EFI and SOT for the maximum temperature on 28 June, the day when the French record was broken.
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The ensemble ensemble evolution plot below shows the ENS (blue) and HRES (red dot) 3-day average temperature for a box covering most of France 26-29 June. The signal of the heat appeared quickly between the forecast from 18 June 00UTC to 19 June 00UTC (7 before the start of the verification period). Earlier forecasts had a ensemble median cooler than normal (see Section 3.4).
maximum temperature for Nimes on 28 June.
To investigate the difference in the ensemble forecasts from 18 and 19 June further, the plots below show the z200 ensemble mean difference (shade) for pair of forecasts valid the same date, starting from the difference valid 28 June (10 day forecast from 18th minus 9 day forecast from 19th). The following plots show the differences at earlier valid times (increments of one day). On 28 June the difference is clear over Europe. On 24 June (5th plot), the difference is related to a ridge-through-ridge structure over North America and western Atlantic. A guess it that the difference appear in over northern Pacific on 19 June.
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