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The plots below show EFI and SOT for total precipitation valid 20 October.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with maximum 1-day precipitation valid 21 October 06UTC to 22 October 06UTC for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). The average for the observations in the same box was 70 mm, but for the same locations the second last HRES (red dot) had an average of 40 mm, compared to 30 mm as the box average. Anyway the mean precipitation was clearly underestimated by the shortest forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- Similar structure as 201509 - Rainfall - Southern Europe
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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