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The plots below show satellite images every 3rd hour from 19 August 12UTC to 21 August 00UTC.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation from 18 August 12UTC to 21 August 00UTC. The extreme winds on southern Ireland was due to a small-scale feature inside a larger cyclonic system.
3. Predictability
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3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show the 24-hour maximum wind gusts during 19 August 12UTC to 20 August 12UTC in observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts with 12-hours apart. The very extreme winds were captured in HRES 1.5 day before.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 24-hour wind gusts valid 20 August.
The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts for 24-hour wind gusts inside a 2x2 degree box over southern Ireland (see plots above). The plot include ENS (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot), model climate (red box-and-whisker, not added yet) and observations (green dot). There is a big jump in the ensemble distribution between 18 August 06UTC and 18 August 12UTC forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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