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The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 3-day temperature mean averaged inside the box outlined in the plots above (1x1 degree around Dallas). The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue boxes, median square and mean diamond) and model climate distribution (red boxes). The value from one station inside the box is plotted in green.
Observations show that cold air arrived in Dallas, TX from north-north-west between 00 and 12 UTC on 9th February. Cold air is estimated to extend in a 100-hPa deep layer from the surface.
Radiosonde measurements at Fort Worth, TX on 09@00 UTC, 09@12 UTC and 10@00 UTC (from left to right).
The model has never managed to fully represent the vertical structure of the atmosphere in the cold air including low clouds in Dallas. The forecast shown below is initialised at 00 UTC on 8th February.
Forecast v. observed vertical profiles valid for 09@00 UTC, 09@12 UTC and 10@00 UTC (from left to right). Forecast initialised at 00 UTC on 8 February is displayed.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the weekly 2-metre temperature anomaly for the week starting 15 February from the extended-range forecast system.
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