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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
This was also a case for the MISTRAL initiative (an EU project in which Italian partners and ECMWF have collaborated). In that project we have the "Italy flash flood use case", spearheaded by ECMWF, in which post-processing, of different types, is applied to the ECMWF ENSemble, and also a 2.2km Italy-centred limited area COSMO ensemble. The post-processed outputs are blended together, with lead-time-dependant weighting, to make the final product, which aims to give better probabilistic rainfall forecasts, in particular with a view to providing improved early warnings of flash flood risk (via the association with extreme short period rainfall).