Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Mohamed
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
In March 2021 eastern Australia was hit by extreme rainfall.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56476998
The news severe flooding was due to sustained heavy rainfall that started to affect the area around the 17th of March over an already wet catchments. The heavy precipitations were associated with a slow moving trough with a sustained feed of tropical moisture from the North West. In the reports received at ECMWF the maximum daily totals exceeded 350mm but the accumulations over 5 days exceeds 1000 mm in few places and 500mm in many locations. ECMWF forecasts (from HRES and ENS) managed to predict the evolution of the event many days in advance.
2. Description of the event
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Although the predicted amounts were large but there were significantly smaller than the observed range.
- The Severity of the event started to be seen in the forecast only few days in advance. The EFI and other products were after that clearly showing the correct pattern of this extreme events.
- The large scale wet anomaly was correctly identified by the extended range forecasts only after the 4th of March. The forecasts issued on the 8th of March significantly reduced the signal with a northward shift
- Glofas managed to predict the risk of floods for catchments in the areas but also far in land. Being fed by the ENS rainfall Glofas did provide warning only few days in advance