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The plots below show the forecasts from 5 February 00UTC (left) and 6 February (middle) and 8 February (right). The lines represents HRES (red), ENS control (purple), ENS members (blue) and observations (black).


The two panels below show the ENS outcome expressed by the latitude (x-axis) when 2MT and T850 hPa dropped below freezing as a function of the forecast lead time (y-axis, in days) for a same verifying time, ie, 9th February 2021 12Z (~06 Local time, prior to sunrise). The ENS systematically is under-spread and warmer near surface but not near the top of the boundary layer. 

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Prediction of the peak of the event

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