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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
On 5 February tropical cyclone Batsirai made landfall on Madagascar. The cyclone had earlier affected Mauritius and La Reunion.
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The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 5 February 00UTC (first plot) to 26 January 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 5 February 00UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show the tropical storm activity during the week 31 January - 6 February from different initial times.
The plots below show the same a above but for probability of anomaly greater than normal activity.
The plots below show MJO forecasts from 31 January (left), 24 Jan (middle) and 17 January (right).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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