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The plots below show the ENS probability of exceeding 300mm total precip from 4th to 7th February (inclusive), produced by Calum on 3rd February for the flood bulletins, and the IMERG precip totals indicating the area where precip exceeded 300mm over the same period.
Prediction of genesis
The plot below shows the probably of a cyclone passing within 300 km of the observed location of Batsirai on 27 January 12UTC (red). Cyclones from the 2020 Atlantic season in grey. The drop in probability around 25 January 00UTC is perculiarpeculiar.
to investigate the feature on 25 January further, the plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 27 January 00UTC (first plot) to 24 January 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 27 January 12UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).
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The plots below show the tropical cyclone (>17m/s) activity 28-29 January (48h) in observations (first plot) followed by forecasts from 27, 26, 25 and 24 January (all 00UTC).
Same as above but for 8 m/s threshold in the forecast.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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