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The sequence of figures above shows the strike probability of cyclone with maximum wind speed (mean) over 60 kt (31 m/s) at 1 km height. The plots are valid for the 28 October (24-hours). The first forecast is from 28 Oct 0 UTC and one day is added for each plot. With longer lead time the feature is delayed (too slow) in the model, but the path of the cyclone seems very consistent up to 6 days before the landfall.
CDF for wind gusts (left) and maximum mean wind speed (right) for Reading valid on the 28 October. Different colour represents different initial times and the o-suite (38r2, solid) and e-suite (40r1, dotted). Comparing different initial times, the forecast from 26 October (green and black), were the most severe. For the forecasts from the 27 October the wind speed was less. This is partly because the development of the cyclone occurred later and therefore had not reached such a deep stage when it passed over Reading. Comparing e-suite and o-suite, we see that the winds (both mean and gusts) are less in the e-suite and o-suite.
3.3 Monthly forecasts
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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