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The sequence of figures above shows the strike probability of cyclone with maximum wind speed (mean) over 60 kt (31 m/s) at 1 km height. The plots are valid for the 28 October (24-hours). The first forecast is from 28 Oct 0 UTC and one day is added for each plot. With longer lead time the feature is delayed (too slow) in the model, but the path of the cyclone seems very consistent up to 6 days before the landfall.
The figures above show cyclones in the ensemble (dots), where the colour indicates the strength of the maximum wind speed at 1 km height connected to the feature. All the plots are valid 28 October 12 UTC. The contour shows the MSLP for the control forecast. The forecasts are from 0UTC runs starting from 28 Oct (top-left) to 23 Oct (bottom-right). With increasing lead times, the spread of the features over the North Sea increases. We also see that the centre of gravity for the red-orange dots moves westward with increasing lead time, illustrating the too westward development in the model.
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CDF for wind gusts (left) and maximum mean wind speed (right) for Reading valid on the 28 October. Different colour represents different initial times and the o-suite (38r2, solid) and e-suite (40r1, dotted). Comparing different initial times, the forecast from 26 October (green and black), were the most severe. For the forecasts from the 27 October the wind speed was less. This is partly because the development of the cyclone occurred later and therefore had not reached such a deep stage when it passed over Reading. Comparing e-suite and o-suite, we see that the winds (both mean and gusts) are less in the e-suite and o-suite.
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