Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin, Tim H.
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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This figure shows the same as the figure above but zoomed in over Denmark.
Observations of wind speeds from University of Reading, valid for the 28 October.
The figures above show the maximum mean (10 minutes) wind speed (left) and wind gusts (right) for Denmark (from DMI). Here we see that the highest wind speeds occurred in the south.
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We cannot expect to see a strong signal for extreme cyclones in the monthly forecast. However, we can investigate whether the environment was favourable for windy conditions. The figures above show the weekly MSLP anomaly for the week starting on the 28 October. The first figure shows the forecast from the 28 October (Monday of the verifying week), followed by 24 Oct, 21 Oct, 17 Oct, 14 Oct and 10 Oct. At least for the 5 first forecasts a positive NAO signal (negative MSLP anomaly in the northern Atlantic and positive further south) is present. A positive NAO is usually leading to stronger winds over western Europe.
3.4 Comparison with other centres
CDF for 10-metre mean wind for Reading (left) and a point in western Denmark(right). The data is of the maximum for 4 time step valid 28 Oct 6,12 ,18 UTC and 29 Oct 0 UTC. The different colours represents different centres in the TIGGE archive. Two different initial times are plotted, 24 Oct 00 UTC (dotted) and 26 Oct 00 UTC (solid).
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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