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4. Predictability (including 40r1 E-suite evaluation)
48h maximum gusts from successive HRES forecasts from DT 00UTC 21st through to 00UTC 27th (right click view image to get full resolution), for VT period 06UTC 27th to 06UTC 29th. Note how the early forecasts jumped around, as one might expect. Later on very extreme gusts were forecast for areas SW of the UK, and as the event approached this zone of extreme gusts migrated its way eastwards, which is perhaps not what one would expect. End of period mslp is also shown.
By 'adding together' equivalent plots from two very short range forecasts we can provide a model-based pseudo-verification to compare the above with. These are provided below in rapid animation and two-up formats (covering the period 18Z 27th to 06Z 29th). No gusts of note were forecast for the 06Z-18Z 27th period.
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4.1 HRES
The figures below shows forecasts of MSLP valid for 28 Oct 12 UTC and maximum wind gust during the 28 October. The o-suite is plotted in the left column and the e-suite in the right.
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The figure above shows forecasts initialised 25 Oct 0 UTC (+84h).
48h maximum gusts from successive HRES forecasts from DT 00UTC 21st through to 00UTC 27th (right click view image to get full resolution), for VT period 06UTC 27th to 06UTC 29th. Note how the early forecasts jumped around, as one might expect. Later on very extreme gusts were forecast for areas SW of the UK, and as the event approached this zone of extreme gusts migrated its way eastwards, which is perhaps not what one would expect. End of period mslp is also shown.
By 'adding together' equivalent plots from two very short range forecasts we can provide a model-based pseudo-verification to compare the above with. These are provided below in rapid animation and two-up formats (covering the period 18Z 27th to 06Z 29th). No gusts of note were forecast for the 06Z-18Z 27th period.
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4.2 ENS
The sequence of figures above shows the strike probability of cyclone with maximum wind speed (mean) over 60 kt (31 m/s) at 1 km height. The plots are valid for the 28 October (24-hours). The first forecast is from 28 Oct 0 UTC and one day is added for each plot. With longer lead time the feature is delayed (too slow) in the model, but the path of the cyclone seems very consistent up to 6 days before the landfall.
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