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CDF for 10-metre mean wind for Reading (left) and a point (55N, 9E) in western Denmark(right). The data is of the maximum for 4 time step valid 28 Oct 0, 6,12 ,18 UTC and 29 Oct 0 UTC. The different colours represents different centres in the TIGGE archive. Two different initial times are plotted, 24 Oct 00 UTC (dotted) and 26 Oct 00 UTC (solid). For Reading the maximum mean wind was 10 m/s and the point in Denmark lies within the area of 25-30 m/s. The results for ECMWF is not convincing, especially for the Danish point; the ECMWF forecast has the lowest wind speeds for both initial times. However, there could be a mixture of land points and sea point between the difference centres. The figure below shows therefore the mean wind on 850 hPa for the same point. Here, at least for the 26 October, ECMWF shows the highest wind speeds. For the 24 October it could be the case that the timing error led to that the cyclone had not reached this point within the window for the diagnostics.
The figures below show the probability of wind speeds above 33 m/s on the 850hPa level, for forecasts valid 28 October (0,6,12,18 plus 0 UTC on the 29th). The results are for ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and CMC.
The figures above show forecasts from 28 October 00 UTC (0 to 24 hour forecasts). Here all four centres agrees so this pattern could be seen as the outcome of the event.
The figures above show forecasts from 26 October 00 UTC (48 to 72 hour forecasts).
The figures above show forecasts from 24 October 00 UTC (96 to 120 hour forecasts).
The figures above show forecasts from 22 October 00 UTC (144 to 168 hour forecasts).
5. Experience from general performance/other cases
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- The difference in wind speeds between e-suite and o-suite.
7. Additional material
The figures above show forecasts from 28 October 00 UTC (0 to 24 hour forecasts).