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3. Mesoscale Structure of the Storm
Animation - IR |
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Animation - Reading WCB SJ phase | Animation - Reading SJ WCB phase Animation - time of Reading max SJ gust
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Part of Sting Jet conceptual model |
Damage Swathe conceptual model |
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By 'adding together' equivalent plots from two very short range forecasts we can provide a model-based pseudo-verification to compare the above with. These are below in rapid animation and two-up formats (covering the period 18Z 27th to 06Z 29th). No gusts of note were forecast for the 06Z-18Z 27th period.
Forecasts |
Forecasts |
Model-based verification
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Model-based verification
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4.1.2 O-Suite vs E-suite
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The sequence of figures above shows the strike probability of cyclone with maximum wind speed (mean) over 60 kt (31 m/s) at 1 km height. The plots are valid for the 28 October (24-hours). The first forecast is from 28 Oct 0 UTC and one day is added for each plot. With longer lead time the feature is delayed (too slow) in the model, but the path of the cyclone seems very consistent up to 6 days before the landfall.
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VT 00Z 28th:
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VT 12Z 28th:
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The figures above show cyclones in the ensemble (dots), where the colour indicates the strength of the maximum wind speed at 1 km height connected to the feature. All the plots are valid 28 October 00 or 12 UTC. The contour shows the MSLP for the control forecast. The forecasts are from 0UTC runs starting from 28 21 Oct (top-left) to 23 28 Oct (bottom-right). With increasing shorter lead times, the spread of the features over the North Sea increasesdecreases. We also see that the centre of gravity for the red-orange dots moves westward eastward with increasing decreasing lead time, illustrating the too westward development in the model.
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