Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin, Tim H., Ivan
Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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38R2 40r1
The figures above shows the probability for wind gusts over 33 m/s during the 28 October. The first figures is for the ensemble forecast issued 28 Oct 00 UTC and the following are forecasts with 12 hours in between. For the 2nd and 3rd ensembles, the signal for hurricane gusts are weaker than before and after, especially for the forecast from the 27 Oct 12 UTC. This was the problematic forecast for the Netherlands discussed above.
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- The storm developed too far west in the forecasts, and therefore over-forecast the intensity for western England.
- Also for the very short forecast, the path of the strongest winds where too far north over Denmark and Sweden.
- Too weak storms in the forecast from the 27 October, especially 12 UTC, which the KNMI complained about.
- The difference in wind speeds between e-suite and o-suite. This has been further evaluated with the ENS reforecasts. Comparing the 99th percentile of the wind speeds and wind gusts for October (in total 1920 forecasts), we see some signs of lower extreme winds in the e-suite. However, the magnitude of the difference is small (about 1 m/s0 and it is hard to verify whether the change is good or bad.
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