...
4. Predictability (including 40r1 E-suite evaluation)
4.0 Data assimilation
The figures above shows MSLP forecast valid 28 October 00 UTC. The black contours shows forecasts from 27 Oct 00 UTC (left), 27 Oct 12 UTC (mid) and 28 Oct 00 UTC (right). The red contours are forecasts initialised 12 hours earlier. The figures therefore illustrates the shift between two consecutive forecasts. (The black contours become red in consecutive plot.) For the 27 Oct 00 UTC, the cyclone was shifted to the east and had not developed as much as in the previous forecast. For the forecast from 12 UTC (mid), the cyclone is even more shifted to east. For the last plot, where we compare the analysis from 28 Oct 00 UTC with the forecast from 12 hours earlier, the cyclone is shifted somewhat back towards west, although not a deep as in 26 Oct 12 UTC (red contour in the right plot). These shifts in the forecast had a big impact on the forecasts for the storm (see below).
4.1 HRES
4.1.1 O-Suite
Sequence of forecasts below (left and second left columns) shows 48h maximum gusts from successive HRES forecasts from DT 00UTC 21st through to 00UTC 27th for VT period 06UTC 27th to 06UTC 29th (on 12up image left click, then right click -> view image to get full resolution). Note how the early forecasts jumped around, as one might expect. Later on very extreme gusts were forecast for areas SW of the UK, and as the event approached this zone of extreme gusts migrated its way eastwards, which is perhaps not what one would want/expect. End of period mslp is also shown.
...