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Strike probability of a tropical storm for the period 4 to 10 November. forecasts from 4 Nov, 31 Oct, 28 Oct, 24 Oct and 21 October. As expected for above the forecast from 4 November had a high strike probability. For the earlier forecasts there is a risk for a cyclone (however we have to check how different the probabilities are from the climatology).
3.4 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- Megi, Bopha: super-typhoons with far too high minimum pressure
- Francesco: Why did the model produce such a low pressure for Francesco and not for Haiyan?
The figures above shows examples of MSLP of Francesco (left) and Haiyan (right), 36 hours into the forecast. Here we see that Francesco was a much more large-scale system, so the pressure gradients look similar even if Francesco had a minimum pressure of 911 hPa and Haiyan 944 hPa.
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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