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Four supplementary short range forecasts runs were performed to see if any conclusions can be drawn about the gust differences between the E-suite and O-suite: (ai) a copy of the esuite E-suite run from 00 UTC on the 28th of october, (bii) a copy of the osuite O-suite run from 00 UTC on the 28th of october, (ciii) a run with the esuite E-suite branch initialized from the analysis at 00 UTC on the 28th of october produced by the esuiteO-suite, (div) a run with the osuite O-suite branch initialized from the analysis at 00 UTC on the 28th of october produced by the osuiteE-suite. The differences in wind gusts at a short range (steps 3 and 4) between the 4 these runs suggest that the differences between the esuite E-suite and the osuite O-suite discussed above are partly due to the differences in the initial conditions. It is therefore difficult to attribute the changes in wind gusts discussed above to the changes to one of the parameterizations or to the data assimilation system. Another aspect examined in the these four runs was the contribution of each of the three terms entering the gust parameterization to the differences in wind gusts between the esuite E-suite and the osuiteO-suite. It appears that the terms (a) and (b) have relatively similar contributions to these differences, which is expected given they both depend on the mean wind. The convective term contributes on average less than the other terms, but can locally contribute more (up to 5-6m/s in this case), ifor e.eg. in regions where there was no convection in the O-suite and there is convection in the other runE-suite, or the other way around.
4.2 ENS
The sequence of figures above shows the strike probability of cyclone with maximum wind speed (mean) over 60 kt (31 m/s) at 1 km height. The plots are valid for the 28 October (24-hours). The first forecast is from 28 Oct 0 UTC and one day is added for each plot. With longer lead time the feature is delayed (too slow) in the model, but the path of the cyclone seems very consistent up to 6 days before the landfall.
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