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Strike probability of a tropical storm for the period 4 to 10 November. forecasts from 4 Nov, 31 Oct, 28 Oct, 24 Oct and 21 October. As expected for above the forecast from 4 November had a high strike probability. For the earlier forecasts there is a risk for a cyclone (however we have to check how different . However, when checking the climatological occurrences (see figure below), we see that the probabilities are not different from the climatology).
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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- Far to high minimum pressure
- Data assimilation made the cyclone less intense?
6. Additional material
From the WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts, I (Linus) found the following diagnostics of tropical cyclone minimum pressure. The figures below shows scatter plots of observed vs. modelled pressure for the north-western Pactific for the season of 2010. The plots are for ECMWF, UKMO, NCEP and JMA.
