...
The figure above shows verification of the MSLP fields valid 8 Nov 00 UTC. For high-resolution ps-file, click here. Already the HRES forecast from 10 days before had a cyclone in vicinity of the Philippines. In the forecast from the 3 and 4 November the cyclone starts to be more intense. However, the minimum pressure error is very large (60-70 hPa).
3.3 ENS
The figures above shows the strike probability product from 8, 7, 6, 5 and 4 November 00 UTC. Here we see a very consistent ensemble regarding the track, but the ensemble has even higher minimum pressure than the HRES.
...