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We can see from the synoptic analysis that the main cause of this heatwave in western Europe was the advection of warm air from North Africa, which was assisted by a quasi-static cut-off low located off the coast of Portugal. After moving northeastward on the 19th and 20th of July, the cut-off low brought some colder air and precipitation to western Europe.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from
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10 June to
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19 July
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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ENS probabilities of exceeding 35 degrees in 2 consecutive days (valid on 18-19 July 2022). A sequence of plots every 24h from 00-48h to 312-360h.
ENS probabilities of exceeding 35 degrees in 2 consecutive days (valid on 18-19 July 2022). A sequence of plots every 24h from 00-48h to 192-240h.
ENS probabilities > 99 percentile of model climate in 2 consecutive days (valid on 18-19 July 2022). A sequence of plots every 24h from 00-48h to 168-216h.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
2m temperature weekly anomalies for week 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 and valid on the week from 18 to 25th July
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