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The forecast on the 31st also detected the severe event that caused widespread flooding in Rome, the Lazio and the Lazio Regionthe Calabria region on the 2-3 February. (http://floodlist.com/europe/deadly-floods-italy)
For Italy, an EFAS partner exists only for the Po River Basin but not for other river basins. For this series of events, three EFAS flash flood watches were sent, one for the Oglio River on the 30/01/2014 (Northern Italy) and two for the Drava River (Southern Austria), on the 31/01/2014. See image below.
Discharge observations are available at some stations in the North of Italy. The comparison in the following figures show that forecasts in the Po River slightly underestimated the observed peak discharge (in red), though no flood was caused by the river.
On the other hand, results show a clear underestimation in smaller river basins, partly due to model resolution issues. Indeed for EFAS hydrological forecasts, no flood alert is issued in river basins with upstream area lower than 4000 km2. See for example a comparison between EFAS forecasts and discharge observations in the Secchia River (1300 km2), where severe river flooding occurred.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
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