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The figures above show snapshots of 1h precipitation and MSLP for the 12 December (13,15,17,19,21UTC). Comparing the forecasts for the two dates we see that the showers appeared more over land on the 11 December but stopped at the coast on the 12 December.
The figures above shows the large-scale (left) and convective (right) precipitation in the HRES forecasts from 10 December valid for 11 December. Here we see that t large portion of the precipitation was generated by the convection scheme.
3.3 ENS
The figures above shows the CDF for total precipitation for the 11 (left) and 12 (right) December for the point close to Jerusalem. Also for ENS, the precipitation was higher for the 11th. Compared to HRES, the values for the 11th is much lower, indicating a resolution effect (orography?).
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