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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
1. Impact
During the last weekend of January massive precipitation hit southern Europe. Several cities in northern Italy were flooded (e.g. Pisa) and Croatia and Serbia experienced severe snowfall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25992800
2. Description of the event
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3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
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3.3 ENS
EFI from 29 Jan 00UTC for 31 Jan to 5 Feb (day 1-5). We should produce the same to for the day before.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
3.6 EFAS flood forecasts
See below the forecasts of EPIC, the flash flood component of EFAS, issued on the 29, 30 and 31 January 2014 at 00 UTC. A rather large area in the Central and North of Italy showed a significant probability to exceed the three warning threshold, corresponding to 2, 5, and 20 years.
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On the other hand, results show a clear underestimation in smaller river basins, partly due to model resolution issues. Indeed for EFAS hydrological forecasts, no flood alert is issued in river basins with upstream area lower than 4000 km2. See for example a comparison between EFAS forecasts and discharge observations in the Secchia River (1300 km2), where severe river flooding occurred.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
6. Additional material
The winter 2013/14 has been exceptionally warm and rather extreme in terms of the precipitation distribution to the south and north of the Alps. More information can be found here: ExtremeWinter_2013-14_Austria.pdf