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During the last weekend of January massive precipitation hit southern Europe. Several cities in northern Italy were flooded (e.g. Pisa) and Austria, Croatia and Serbia experienced severe snowfall.
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The plot series above show the z500 and t850 short (12 hour) forecasts valid from 30 January to 4 February. During the period a trough was located over south-western Europe. leading to a south-westerly flow hitting Italy and the southern Alps for the days.
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The plots above show precipitation forecasts (accumulated between step 6 and 18) for the same dates as above. Here the strong precipitation is apparent for the period.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The figures above show the verification for the 24-hour accumulated precipitation for day 2-3 forecasts. (The figures are hard to read, I should upload the ps-files.)
3.3 ENS
EFI from 29 Jan 00UTC for 31 Jan to 5 Feb (day 1-5). (We should produce the same to for the day before.)
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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The figures above show the weekly anomaly of the precipitation for the 27 January to 2 February, from the monthly forecast system. For the central Mediterranean a wet anomaly is present 15-21 day forecast but for the northern Italy the anomaly first appear in the 5-11 day forecast.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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