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http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2014/02/12/sc/
1. Impact
On the 12 February a storm hit Ireland, Wales and western England. The storm caused power cuts 65000 homes on Ireland and 50000 homes in Wales.
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For the event, red warnings were issued for high wind speeds on Ireland, Wales and western England (see figure above from meteoalarm.eu).
2. Description of the event
Gallery includeLabel sat sort name title Satellite images from yr.no
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The figures above shows maximum observed wind gusts during 12 February (24-hour period). Several stations on Ireland and Wales/England reported wind gusts above 40 m/s.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
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The series of figures above shows HRES forecasts of the maximum wind gust during the 12 February and the MSLP valid 12 UTC. The colour scale is the same as for the observations in the previous section. The first forecast is from 12 february 00 UTC and the following is 11 February 00UTC and so on (with 1 day apart).
3.3 ENS
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Extreme index forecasts for maximum wind gusts valid on the 12 February, from 1 (12 Nov 00UTC), 2, 3, 4, 5 days before the event. The figures also includes the values for the 99th percentile. All all lead times relatively high EFI is present in the area.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- Two days later, another storm hit the British Isles, see Windstorms: 201402- British Isles (Valentine's day)
5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- This week had a strong potential for intensive cyclones. Some forecasts had another system just one day before that did not happened. The details for the present storm was well captured 4 days before the event.
- The phase speed seem too low.
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