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 Fig8.1.10.2.2A(Left):  Tropical storm strike probability chart from ENS ensemble data time 12UTC 28 February 2017.  This indicates the probability of the passage of storms (some possibly not yet developed) within a 300km radius, between 9 and 11 days ahead (during the 48hr period between 12UTC 8 March and 12UTC 10 March 2017).   The western storm passed across Madagascar as intense tropical depression ENAWO before weakening by the time of the chart.  The central storm became a tropical depression 07S passing just east of Madagascar.   The north-eastern storm developed a wind circulation near 90E but didn't reach tropical storm status.   These developments are reflected in the probabilities shown on the chart, though of course this will not always be the case.  Probabilities given by colours in the scale.

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Fig8.1.10.2.3: Web charts tropical storm strike probability charts from ENSensemble probability charts data time 12UTC 03 January 2018 verifying at  T+144 (12UTC 09 January 2018) and T+192 (verifying 12UTC on 11 January 2018).   Forecast from ENSensemble, data time 00UTC 8 January 2018.    The charts show probabilities associated with tropical storm force winds indicated to increase from a weaker pre-existing tropical cyclone near the northwest coast of Australia.

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Fig8.1.10.2.4: ecChart tropical storm strike probability chart from ENS ensemble with 100m winds (m/s) from HRES for CONTROL-10 for T+96 verifying at 00UTC 12 January 2018.  Forecast from ENSensemble, data time 00UTC 8 January 2018.

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