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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
The Emilio-Romagna region of Italy received an exceptional amount of rainfall on 15-16 May as a result of the low-pressure system called Minerva. Just as this area happened to have a similar event just 2 weeks ago.
The media reports that over 20 rivers and streams have burst their banks, with flooding in 37 municipalities causing at least 8 fatalities. The source also reports 250 landslides across 48 municipalities.
2. Description of the event
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The plots below show 48-hour precipitation (15 May 00UTC - 17 May 00UTC) in observaions (first plot, more obs to be added later) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and o-suite HRES forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show the same as above but for e-suite (the concatenated analysis is still o-suite).
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for 3-day precipitation on 15-17 May, from different initial dates.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 48-hour precipitation (15 May 00UTC - 17 May 00UTC) for 0.5 degree box outlined in the plots above. Mean of observations - green hourglass (to be included), concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS control - purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Ensemble median as black box and ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts. 48r1 e-suite is included in cyan (ENS distribution).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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