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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
On 29-30 April a cyclone formed over France and moved northwards. In front on the cyclone severe convection appeared with reported tornado over Belgium. The cyclone itself led to heavy rain along the French, Belgium and the Netherlands. However, 1-3 days before the main part of the rain was predicted to fall over southern England.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows the surface analysis from Metoffice on 30 April 06UTC.
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Severe weather reports and ATDnet lightning density on 29 April 2018. Two tornadoes have been reported - one in NE France and another one over SE Belgium.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plots below show surface Obs with alarms triggered for 30th April (left), example of obstats for one such ob in the middle of the cluster (middle) and MSLP for 06Z from background (blue) and LWDA analysis (red (right).
3.2 HRES
The plots below shows 24-hour precipitation (30 April 06UTC to 1 May 06UTC) from observations (first plot) and HRES forecasts.
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for CAPE/SHEAR in 1-day forecasts valid for 29 April (left) and 30 April (right).
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Convective hazards forecasts valid for 29 April picked up severe convection 4 to 5 days in advance.
