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The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for water vapour flux compares the ensemble forecast probability distribution of an event to the M-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time.  The water vapour flux EFI can provide an understanding of the synoptic-scale processes behind an extreme rainfall events.  

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  • in ECMWF newsletter about water vapour flux
  • by David Lavers et al. published in Weather and Forecasting (doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0073.1) gives more details on the evaluation of the precipitation and water vapour flux EFI across western Europe and western North America.

Added 25/10/20.