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Fig8.1.10.3.1A: Reliability diagram of tropical cyclone strike probabilities, at day 10, for TCs in existence at T+0, for year July to June (years indicated by colours) showing reasonably good reliability (plots are near the diagonal), but a tendency towards over- confidence (plots to right of diagonal).

Fig8.1.10.3.1B: Relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram for tropical cyclone strike probabilities, at day 10, for TCs in existence at T+0, for year July to June (years indicated by colours) showing high ROC score (plots lie towards left and upper axes) with low False Alarm Rate and high Probability of Detection.

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• See ECMWF Newsletter, Summer 2020 issue for further explanatory information regarding Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasts.
• Read more about tropical cyclone activity (Including genesis) from medium range and extended range ENS.Read information on ECMWF performance regarding tropical storms (pages 11,12 and 43)
• Read more about forecasting tropical cyclones in the medium-range.
  
• Watch a webinar on tropical products and skill (30sec delay before start)
• Read more about tropical cyclone products in a Newsletter feature.
• Read more about tropical cyclone predictions at ECMWF in a Newsletter feature.

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