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Fig8.1.9.6-16: Probability of Detection and False Alarm Ratio results from an initial investigation on the ability of HRES in capture of MCS.



Fig8.1.9.6-17:  ROCA Diagram showing skill of CAPE and CAPE-shear Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) at recognising severe convective outbreaks (verified against observed MCS).  The area under the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROCA) curve gives an indication of skill (1.0 = High Skill; 0.5 = No Skill).  The EFI is verified against severe weather reports in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) averaged over the April-September periods between 2017 and 2020.

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